Publications

Autoren: Lisa A. Pace, Carmen Bruno, Jan Oliver Schwarz

Link:dx.doi.org.thi.idm.oclc.org/10.1016/j.futures.2025.103539

Abstract:

This paper contributes to integrating human-centred design approaches in foresight. We emphasize design thinking as an approach that incorporates user-centred concepts and artefacts, enabling the creation and visualization of potential futures and mediating the exploration of new perspectives and areas of intervention for innovation. However, there is limited discussion in the foresight literature on the meaningful application of design approaches. We focus on the persona method and its roles and applications in scenario building. To be meaningful in scenario building, personas need to appropriately integrate users’ future needs, expectations and behaviours that shape and in turn are shaped by contexts that are yet to be realised. Based on an analysis of published case studies, the paper underscores the role of personas in fostering creative imagination, enhancing scenario engagement, and prospective sensemaking beyond their application as a storytelling vehicle in scenarios. We link persona characteristics and design to their roles in scenario building, allowing design and foresight practitioners the flexibility to tailor the persona approach to different contexts and critically assess the underlying limitations. From this, we provide recommendations for incorporating personas in scenario building and conclude with suggestions for future research.•Personas are fictional characters that project future user needs and expectations.•When used with scenarios, personas foster creativity and sensemaking futures.•Tailoring the features, and roles of personas in scenario building.•Future research could address the mode and scope of personas application.

Authors: Jan Oliver Schwarz, Theresa Constanze Schropp, Bernhard Wach, Fabian Buder

Link:  http://dx.doi.org.thi.idm.oclc.org/10.1016/j.futures.2025.103548

Abstract:

In a large empirical investigation of 400 managers in large U.S. and European corporations, we shed light on the effects of internal strategic foresight activities for decision-making, asking whether and how firms’ internal foresight activities add value to their decision-making. Enabling and supporting strategy conversations is conceptualized here as a central activity of strategic foresight. Our empirical investigation demonstrates that internal foresight activities have a significant and positive effect on strategy conversations within a firm. Against the assumptions of previous research, however, we cannot confirm the positive influence of strategy conversations in general on challenging the status quo in a firm or the overall helpfulness of strategic foresight activities in the context of decision-making. Future research should delve deeper into organizational studies to gain a more nuanced understanding of the processes and factors influencing future-oriented decision-making, as well as identifying key enablers that facilitate these decisions.•Empirical investigation of 400 managers in large U.S. and European corporations.•Internal foresight activities have a significant and positive effect on strategic conversations within a firm.•Positive influence of strategic conversations in general on challenging the status quo in a firm cannot be confirmed.•Future research should aim to gain a more nuanced understanding of the processes and factors influencing future-oriented decision-making.

Authors: Schropp, Theresa, Jan Oliver Schwarz und Fabian Buder

Link: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.178

Abstract:

Our study emphasizes the evolving nature and increasing relevance of corporate foresight (CF) in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world. This research, therefore, contributes to the foresight literature, concerned with the antecedents and motivators of CF as it investigates how external events that are characterized by great uncertainty influence the CF practice of large companies. On the example of the COVID-19 pandemic and based on a study of 25 interviews, this empirical research reveals that such events provoke an intensified engagement with the future within companies as implied by a greater resource commitment and interest in foresight. Thereby, CF and especially the development of multiple future scenarios, are considered helpful in countering uncertainty and facilitating responsiveness.

Authors: Konstantinos Konstantinidis, Quentin Ladetto, Jan Oliver Schwarz, Theresa Schropp, Philipp Schweiger

Link: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.178

Abstract:

In an era marked by rapid technological advancements and increasing global complexity, foresight and preparedness are vital for organizations to navigate uncertain futures effectively. This report, produced collaboratively by armasuisse Science and Technology and the Bavarian Foresight Institute, explores eleven key emerging technological trends—including data science, AI, immersive technologies, quantum technologies, and more—and their interactions with fourteen global megatrends, such as climate change, urbanization, and shifting health paradigms.

By leveraging a structured framework, the report provides detailed analyses of each trend and megatrend, identifying potential impacts, challenges, and opportunities. A novel "Scenario Game" is introduced as an interactive tool for leaders to engage with these insights, enabling strategic exploration of future scenarios and fostering foresight-thinking.

This comprehensive resource serves as a valuable guide for decision-makers across industries, offering both a deep understanding of technological trajectories and a practical methodology for addressing the complex interplay of global trends shaping the future.

Authors:  Felix von Held, Jan Oliver Schwarz

Abstract:

This book introduces a fresh perspective on future-focused leadership, blending adaptability with resilience to offer guidance during uncertain times. It goes beyond explaining the “what” of foresight and strategy by embedding them within a value-driven culture, the “how.” Drawing from extensive research and practical experience, Robust Leadership equips leaders with actionable exercises designed to refine and strengthen their leadership capabilities.

Authoren: Felix Boddenberg, Jan Oliver Schwarz, Peter Schmies

Link:http://dx.doi.org.thi.idm.oclc.org/10.6531/JFS.202403_28(3).0004

Abstract:

Visions of the future of the digital transformation in the fashion industry are formed within the framework of this paper and are ultimately investigated in greater detail from a colour management perspective. The scenario planning method is used for this purpose with the objective of outlining four plausible and internally consistent scenarios. The scenarios, formed with deviations from the classical steps, are investigated using an implications workshop. Thus, this paper shows to what extent it is possible to deviate from the classical approach of scenario planning in order to still obtain industry-relevant results in a subsequent implications workshop.

Authoren: Ulrike-Sabine Dörr, Gerhard Schönhofer, Jan Oliver Schwarz

Link:  http://dx.doi.org.thi.idm.oclc.org/10.1186/s40309-024-00237-1 

Abstract:

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are the backbone of many economies. In today's world of VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity), SMEs face diverse challenges to survive and stay competitive. SMEs must prepare themselves for these challenges by practicing foresight. However, foresight, and especially corporate foresight, has been conceptualized and researched in the context of large corporations. Applying foresight in SMEs is therefore complicated by the question of how to implement foresight in the context of SMEs given their specific requirements and limitations. This article provides an overview on the literature on the application of foresight in SMEs is, along with a summary of the extent to which SMEs conduct foresight from an organizational and individual perspective. Besides offering a compendium on the state of foresight in SMEs, a research agenda is formulated, incorporating the idea of a toolbox tailored to SMEs based on existing approaches and prior works.

Authors: Koebe, Philipp, Tobias Schillings und Jan Oliver Schwarz

Link:https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.202312_28(2).0005

Abstract:

Population health is a crucial determinant of human prosperity and well-being. Poor health can lead to reduced productivity, poverty, and premature death, with the COVID-19 pandemic underscoring the vulnerability of population health on a global scale. Self-learning algorithms have the potential to improve population health in a sustainable way and bring a paradigm shift to healthcare. We utilize intuitive logic to generate future scenarios in order to address the research question. These scenarios are categorized as either health-promoting or health-damaging, and superintelligence is considered either dominating or nondominating. We provide strategic implications for each scenario, which can guide policy action in dealing with superintelligence.

Authors: Krüger, Clemens, Laura Bechthold und Reinhard Prügl

Link:https://doi.org/10.4337/9781800889248.00026

Abstract:

Entrepreneurs face seemingly conflicting goals in a rapidly changing and complex world. Especially family businesses are prone to such paradoxical tensions due to the interconnectedness of the family and the firm. Despite their relevance in entrepreneurial business practice, current research lacks methods to examine individual behavior in the management of paradoxes. We introduce serious games as a method capable of simulating context-rich and immersive environments to understand entrepreneurial decision-making in paradoxical situations. In an exploratory study, we quantitatively and qualitatively analyzed the behavior of 181 players in a self-programmed serious game with a focus on decision-making in a family firm. With this initial implementation of a serious game, we show the method's potential for advancing (family) entrepreneurship research and behavioral management theories. We propose a new research agenda that harnesses context-rich games for behavioral analyses, entrepreneurship education, and the development of coping strategies for the management of paradoxes.

Authors: Schönmann, Alexander, Lukas Lodes und Alexander Schiendorfer

Link: https://doi.org/10.17619/UNIPB/1-1821

Abstract:

The importance of dealing with technology forecasts and forward studies in terms of content for a sound research and innovation policy has increased in view of the increasing complexity of innovation processes over the last few years. National, cross-thematic technology projections and forward studies croffit insights into the assessments and expectations of governments regarding emerging (technology) development and, in some cases, into strategic planning in the respective national context.

Knowledge of thematic priorities in international forward studies can help German decision-makers identify important issues for science and technology decisions. Thus, own science and technology strategies can be compared with those of other countries and strengths, weaknesses and potential for optimization can be identified. It is also possible to better assess which investments in research and development can bring great benefits to society and the economy.

This article provides a statistical overview of international technology forecasts and future studies in the 2016-2022 observation period and evaluates thematically. The focus is on identifying key topics of individual countries and regions of the world, which are statistically identified using so-called national thematic fingerprints.

The aim is a comparative overview of the thematic focuses of currently important technology perspectives from abroad, which meets the need of German decision-makers for substantial evaluations of international technology forecasts.

Author: Schönhofer, Gerhardt

Link: https://sammlung.volkskundemuseum.at/bibliothek/content/zoom/171462

Authors: Schwarz, Jan Oliver, Bernhard Wach und René Rohrbeck

Link:doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2023.103137

Abstract:

Many organizations use design thinking (DT) to develop future products and services. DT is often used for its ability to serve as a common “language” and platform to enable market-facing departments and technology-oriented units to cocreate innovations. DT has been shown to be a powerful tool for helping to identify and connect the needs of average customers (personas) with technical solutions that form the basis for winning products. In this paper, we investigate the extent to which DT professionals already use strategic foresight (SF) methods that anticipate future customer needs and highlight emerging technologies to expand classical DT and anchor their projects in the future. Using survey data on 302 DT projects, we report on the extent to which SF methods are used in DT projects, the overriding types of SF methods in DT projects, and their impact on project success.

Autoren: Schwarz, Jan Oliver

Link:https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003302735

Abstract:

Organisations today are being challenged to make sense of changes in environments that, now more than ever, are described as VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous). They are also being driven to understand how the future will evolve and what impact it will have not only on the organisations themselves but also on industries and societies. In recent decades a field has emerged to support organisations in addressing these challenges: strategic foresight.

This book is a comprehensive introduction to strategic foresight. It presents a history of the field and explains the main principles in thinking about the future. The book describes how organisations can apply strategic foresight and explains how it relates to other fields such as strategy, innovation, and leadership, highlighting the relevance of strategic foresight not only for organisations but also for individuals, particularly managers and leaders. Grounded in the theoretical foundations of strategic foresight, the book reflects the latest academic research and explores practical applications in different contexts. It draws on more than two decades of experience that the author has in the field as a researcher and as a consultant in the corporate context.

This is essential reading for managers and leaders of public and private organisations who want to establish strategic foresight practices, as well as students of foresight and managers in the fields of innovation, research & development, and marketing.

Authors: Schönhofer, Gerhardt

Link:https://www.transcript-verlag.de/978-3-8376-6061-6/ermaechtigung-durch-sichtbarkeit/

Abstract:

In the context of participatory film projects for young people with refugee experience, visibility is often equated with empowerment. Gerhard Schönhofer questions this logic by ethnographically describing processes of making visible, as they occur in workshop formats. The proximity to the research field not only creates a precise picture of the self-image, but also of the demands of the project managers, who are sometimes in tension with the motivations of the participating young people.

Authors: Schwarz, Jan Oliver und Bernhard Wach

Link:https://doi.org/10.1080/14606925.2021.2005879

Abstract:

It has been argued that cultural products (e.g., novels or movies) can be used to develop foresight or prototypes. The rationale is that cultural products not only reflect changes in the business environment but also contribute to these changes by diffusion. Therefore, cultural products are arguably valuable. However, compared to other design thinking tools such as ethnographic research, interviews or focus groups, cultural products are less prevalent. This article, which is based on an empirical study of 302 design thinkers from 2018, explores the extent to which cultural products are used in design thinking projects. Despite a lower prevalence than other design thinking tools, we find support that cultural products are positively related to the success of design thinking projects. We conclude that although cultural products are used less than other approaches, they have a significant impact. We therefore emphasize the future potential of using cultural products in design thinking.